hilarita: stoat hiding under a log (Default)
hilarita ([personal profile] hilarita) wrote in [personal profile] davidgillon 2024-07-06 11:12 am (UTC)

The problem with the polls was that they didn't really indicate the margin of error. The FT had a graphic that showed (given the pre-election predictions) what the seat numbers for the Tories would look like with the polling errors from previous elections, and they came up with a range from 50-147 seats. While I'd hoped for a bit more of a wipe-out, I was very prepared for the polls not to have captured the behaviour of potential Reform voters very well, and also prepared for some weirdnesses based on turnout.
And yes, really hope that Labour can produce enough of an improvement that Reform lose a lot of their vote to Labour, or that Reform stay home, so that Labour can hang on for a second term. Or of course introduce proportional representation, but I suspect that won't happen.

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